Weekly Market Insights

Retail Sales, Seasonally Adjusted

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Consumers are getting back in the game. Total retail and food sales increased in January by 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, while core sales, which exclude autos and gas, rose by 0.6 percent. During the 12 months ending in January, total and core sales increased by 4.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively, with total sales boosted by the cash-for-clunkers program. Nevertheless, total sales remain 6.3 percent below their recent peak, and core sales are still down by 2.2 percent. As the labor market begins to improve, consumers will carefully ramp up their spending, including some purchases that were deferred during the depths of the recession. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of total gross domestic product, so even a sluggish recovery in retail sales will help put a floor under the economy and reduce the chances for a double-dip recession. This will support leasing demand for commercial real estate, particularly shopping centers.

 Source: Census Bureau, Grubb & Ellis 

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