Weekly Market Insights

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Monthly Single-Family Home Sales

The big news last week was that home sales plunged more than expected in Ju ... Read More

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending

Supply and demand conditions for commercial real estate debt are moving back toward equilibrium according to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. In the July sur ... Read More

Total Consumer Credit

Since peaking at nearly $2.6 trillion in July 2008, consumer credit outstanding has fallen in 20 of the past 23 months by a total of 6.3 percent. Included in this category are revolving credit Read More

Temporary Help Services, Monthly Change

The loss of 5,600 temporary jobs in July was a troubling detail in the disa ... Read More

Gross Domestic Product

Second quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent, down from an ... Read More

Moody's/REAL CPPI

Commercial property prices continue to firm according to the Moody’s/ ... Read More

Retail Sales Monthly % Change

Monthly retail sales were lackluster in June, down 0.5 percent, while April and May data were revised lower. Core sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, increased 0.1 percent, however. Sales at auto dealers and gas station ... Read More

Average Lease Size

The average size of office and industrial leases signed in the first half o ... Read More

Job Growth After Most Recent Recessions

The number of payroll jobs bottomed out in December 2009, but the recession most likely ended a few months before that since GDP turned positive in the third quarter of last year. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the committee of academics responsible for setting business cycle dates, ha ... Read More

Monthly Home Sales In Millions

Sales of new and existing homes fell in May as the homebuyers’ tax credit expired at the end of April. New home sales came in at a startlingly low annualized rate of 300,000 ... Read More

10-Year Swap Spread

The 10-year swap spread is one of the more esoteric indicators that have been in the news recently. In an editorial on Friday in The Wall Street Journal, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the 10-year swap s ... Read More

Retail Sales Monthly % Change

Retail sales slipped unexpectedly in May with seasonally adjusted sales falling by 1.2 percent from April and core sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, dropping by 0.8 percent. For total sales, it was the largest drop si ... Read More

ISM Manufacturing Index

Inflation Trends % Change Year/Year

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.9 percent in April compared with April 2009. This was the smallest year-over-year increase in 44 years and well below the Federal Reserve’s informal target of 1 ... Read More

TED Spread

The Greek debt crisis continues to roil financial markets and test the stability of the euro. The specter of Greece and other highly indebted countries being forced to restructure their sovereign debt raises the possibility ... Read More

Monthly Payroll Job Change

Employers added a robust 290,000 net new payroll jobs in April while February and March numbers were revised higher by a combined 121,000, bringing year-to-date job growth to 573,000. Private sector hiring accounted for 231,000 of the jobs create ... Read More

U.S. Industrial Market Forecast

The industrial leasing market continued to bleed in the first quarter as vacancy, absorption and rental rates all gave up some ground. The pace of deterioration is easing but not quickly. The drivers of demand for industrial space have been improving for several months including the ISM manuf ... Read More

CRE Bank Delinquencies vs. Property Prices

Sometimes it is difficult to reconcile different data sets. Compare commercial real estate loan delinquencies at banks, which are increasing according to the Federal Reserve, with c ... Read More

Office Vacancy vs. Total Payroll Employment

Signs of an economic recovery abound, but they haven’t yet shown up in the U.S. office market as the vacancy rate gained another 50 basis points to end the first quarter at 17.9 percent. This means that the rate of softening accelerated fro ... Read More

10-Year Treasury Rate

Rising interest rates raised eyebrows last week as the 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly one quarter of a percentage point to 3.91 percent on Thursday, its highest level since June ... Read More

Average Lease Term

With rental rates at their softest levels in years, now is an excellent time for tenants to lock in a long-term lease. But that doesn’t seem to be happening yet as the average ... Read More

Retail Sales; Monthly % Change

Retail sales surprised on the upside last month despite severe weather in many parts of the U.S. The Census Bureau reported that total retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent while core sales, which exclude autos and gas, jump ... Read More

Monthly Change in Total Consumer Credit

Overshadowed by Friday’s employment situation report from the Labor Department, the Federal Reserve released its G19 report, which stated that total consumer credit increased by 2.4 percent in January, ending a string of 11 consecutive mont ... Read More

Monthly Home Sales

Sales of both new and existing homes have slipped in recent months, raising doubts about the durability of the housing market recovery. January new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest level on record (since ... Read More

Federal Debt as Percent of GDP

The Obama administration’s recently released budget for fiscal year 2011 forecasts some fairly hefty deficit and debt totals in the coming years. Publicly held debt as a percent of gross domestic product is projected t ... Read More

Retail Sales, Seasonally Adjusted

Consumers are getting back in the game. Total retail and food sales increased in January by 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, while core sales, which exclude autos and gas, rose by 0.6 percent. During the 12 months ending in January, total and co ... Read More

Job Losses Related to Post-War Recessions

The January employment report from the Labor Department revealed an unexpected decline in the jobless rate from 10.0 to 9.7 percent, but other parts of the report were less hopeful. ... Read More

ISM Manufacturing Index

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index rose in January to 58.4, its highest level since August 2004. Index values above 50 indicate an expanding manuf ... Read More

Outstanding Commercial & Industrial Loans

The value of commercial and industrial loans, i.e. business loans, on the balance sheets of U.S. commercial banks has declined consistently since late 2008. This seems to corroborate the view that banks aren’t lending. Indeed, a separat ... Read More

Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates

The average U.S. vacancy rates for the four core property types – office, industrial, retail and apartment – continued to rise in the fourth quarter, but the rate of increase slowed for office and industrial. Vacancy rates last quarter increased by 30 basis points for office and 20 ... Read More

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